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Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 22.08.2011 04:12 | 2008 All Over Again?, by Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs
Another ugly week passes, and it is still only August 20th. What a particularly brutal August this is turning out to be so far, even when compared to many challenging ones in recent and distant years. Although there are many substantive reasons why things are very different, many cannot resist the temptation to make comparisons with 2008. So, I thought I would discuss the comparison this weekend.
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS.
After nearly recovering all of their previous week?s losses early this week, world equity markets crumbled from Wednesday onwards, with few signs of discrimination between countries. If anything, those markets with the greatest ?global exposure? ? such as Germany and Korea ? saw the greatest weakness, which suggests concerns are now very much about a fresh major global slowdown and contagion from the weak economies to the stronger ones. The DAX has lost more than 20pct this month, turning an outperformer into an underperformer. It is also hard to decipher movements between so-called developed and emerging economies, with relative weakness spread across many. China has held up better than most, but given its earlier weakness, this could be argued is a bit clutching for straws.
The inability of equity markets to sustain their early attempts at recovering their steep losses since late July has many technicians suggesting that, not only is any bull market over, but this is the beginning of a fresh prolonged bear market. The move of the S&P below its 200-day moving average as well as the 50-day moving average now being below the 200-day moving average mark are cited by some as evidence of a major trend change.
On the bond markets, not withstanding the continued irony that one of the supposed causes of current economic angst is the sustainability of government finances, many markets reached levels not seen for decades in the earlier part of the week, with the UK, US and Germany sharing the continued role of safe havens. Interestingly, in the last two days, despite the renewed onset of equity weakness, these markets no longer rallied. Whether this is because the whole frenzied bond rally of the month to date was essentially short covering, or whether investors are starting to worry more seriously about the true credit worthiness of these governments is impossible to know. It might be neither. It could be that bond investors want to take a breather ahead of important possible policy initiatives, such as the Jackson Hole speech of Ben Bernanke this week. Or, it could simply be just a pause for some other reason.
On the foreign exchanges, the Yen continued to make new highs performing its rather odd role as a safe haven. It?s odd because Japanese government debt is more than double the Euro Area average and more than double the US, which in my view, makes it highly likely that there will be fresh FX intervention in Tokyo in coming days.
Interestingly, despite the ?risk off? mentality, the Swiss Franc struggled to make renewed gains following efforts by the Swiss authorities to reverse at least some of its huge overvaluation. The Chinese Yuan reversed some of its previous strength, questioning many views that the authorities have recently deliberately adopted a stronger FX policy.
On commodity markets, not surprisingly, many experienced considerable weakness.
One clear continued winner from all the unfolding mess continues to be Gold. It almost seems in the minds of some that Gold is a winner either way, from the fears of a fresh 2008-like global recession or stronger monetary (and fiscal?) measures to avoid it.
ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS LAST WEEK.
Last weekend, I highlighted three important events coming up this past week. It was indeed those events that dominated the week.
The much anticipated Sarkozy-Merkel meeting came and went late Tuesday, with the apparent reality that they don?t want to offer any new quick fix to the immense challenges around European Monetary Union (EMU). I shall return to this below, but this was a major factor in renewed market weakness.
The meeting of the Swiss authorities Wednesday resulted in further aggressive actions by the SNB and kept open the notion that fresh dramatic policy measures might be used to weaken the Franc further, hence the inability of the Franc to play its usual ?risk off? strengthening.
Thirdly, the much anticipated Philly Fed survey Thursday was beyond even the most depressed end of expectations, and its drop to -30.7 is consistent with an economy already in, or about to enter, recession. While the Philly Fed survey can be extremely volatile, it has also proven statistical qualities as a lead indicator. Many, probably including most at the Federal Reserve, had maintained a degree of belief that a modest 2 pct plus real GDP performance was likely in Q3 and Q4. And, until the Philly Fed release, the ongoing evidence was supportive of such views. Adding to these hopes were the release of better-than-expected Industrial Production and the continued gentle trending down in weekly job claims. But, the Philly Fed weakness raises the possibility of a darker path ahead. It is entirely possible that the weakness of the survey has been exaggerated by both the equity market weakness since late July, and also by the highly public and disappointing squabbling over the debt ceiling. But whether this is the case or not, it is also true that they survey might be accurate. As a result, it was no surprise to see the latest bout of US equity market weakness take hold after this release, as market participants priced in the risk of a further related sharp drop in the August manufacturing ISM survey to be released in early September. This now becomes a huge data release in the US.
THINKING BACK TO 2008 AND EARLY 2009.
As I said, it is difficult for us all to avoid 2008-2009 comparisons. So against the background of what happened last week, here are some of my reflections:
1. At the time, as Chief Economist and Head of the Economics Department, we tried to focus even more closely on all the proprietary leading and coincident indicators we had developed over the years, as well as focusing on the policy options that were available. It would seem as though the same is pertinent now.
2. In my view, the build up to the crisis of 2008-09 was different because, even though the apparent bursting of the credit bubble had already started in 2007 and gained momentum in 2008, none of us knew the consequences of major financial institutions failing. This included policymakers. In hindsight, we all have that ? only too recent ? experience to call on now.
3. In the context of both of the above points, watching measures of financial stress as well as other reliable indicators is critical for following what?s happening.. These include the GS Financial Stress Index (GSI), the GS Financial Conditions Index (FCI), and the GS Global Lead Indicator (GLI), for example.
4. So far, of the three, the GLI is pointing more darkly than the other two. Following the Philly Fed survey, the Advanced GLI for August shows a negative reading and suggests more global economic weakness ahead. Because of the speediness of the Fed?s response, US financial conditions have only tightened modestly this month, and as a result, OECD financial conditions have not tightened much at all. This suggests that, unless the power of an FCI has been completely broken, any economic weakness, including the degree warned by the GLI, will be temporary. The FSI has tightened notably in the past fortnight, but is nowhere close to what we witnessed in 2008.
5. Many bears now say that the reason we managed to recover in 2009 is because there were many conventional monetary and fiscal options open to US, European and G20 policymakers. Now, they claim these are all exhausted.
6. This is valid, but I am not in agreement. Many conventional monetary and fiscal tools were exhausted by 2008, but not all, and there are many policy initiatives still available. The Fed has already highlighted that they will do ?more? and we will no doubt get a flavor of that from Ben Bernanke next week. The Swiss National Bank has demonstrated that it had further policy options this past week. The ECB has plenty of conventional policies it can offer, including reversing the two ? arguably mistaken ? interest rate hikes it undertook earlier this year.
7. On the fiscal policy front, while the bond market vigilantes are demonstrating their power, the performance of non Euro Area troubled bond markets suggests that specific targeted fiscal initiatives may be supportable. In this regard, more targeted tax measures in some countries seem likely. In the US, steps to help hiring through payroll taxes seem possible. In the UK, a reversal of the top rate of income tax might be offered.
8. The position of the so-called BRIC economies and markets. In 2008, the valuation of many equity markets, especially China and India, were much higher as we went into the market meltdown. This is not the case today, especially after the past fortnight, and especially for China. All markets are trading at quite modest undemanding multiples. As far as their economies are concerned, the biggest cyclical challenge facing most of the BRIC and other Growth Markets has been food- and energy-induced inflation. One of the few good aspects of the recent behavior of financial markets is that it virtually ensures that inflation is going to ease in many of these economies, and local policymakers will no longer have to tighten monetary policy. As I have written on many occasions, this decade, the combined additional GDP created by the eight Growth Market economies will be around $16 trillion, more than double that of the US and Europe put together. In this regard, I find myself thinking that the relative strength of the Growth Markets will be solidified even more because of recent events. This is a great opportunity for all those investors that have claimed they want to invest in them to do so.
WE NEED POLICY LEADERSHIP.
Away from the specific policy measures adopted in 2008, we also saw some evidence of determined leadership, which was perhaps best represented by the emergence of the G20 in November 2008 and then its re-appearance in the Spring of 2009 and the collective determination to stand against recessionary forces.
Similar leadership is again necessary now. I would argue that this is especially true with respect to Europe. While I have misread the US cyclical developments since the Spring, I remain unruffled about the strength of China and the BRICs. I have been concerned about the forces surrounding EMU throughout the past 15 months. It has been clear for months that markets no longer have confidence in its stability, and the vicious circle between sovereign debt and the European financial system has gotten much worse.
At the core of the European problem ? which may be the only true global economic dilemma currently ? is that the EMU as constructed doesn?t work. As I have written on endless occasions now this year, in hindsight, too many countries were allowed to join. There has been no mechanism for ensuring fiscal discipline; there has been no mechanism for encouraging productivity and competitiveness. The markets now realize this and are clearly scared about it. Many European policymakers appear to be in denial, although this doesn?t stop many from making lots of statements which isn?t helping.
Until a week ago, it was vaguely possible for German policymakers (as Germany was seen as the anchor for the region) to offer some kind of self righteous stance that all EMU member countries had to undertake policies to behave like Germany, and then the system would work just fine. Surely this past week must have laid this mistaken belief to rest? Two things happened of great importance. First, Q2 German GDP rose by just 0.1 pct, actually below the Euro Area average. Second, since August began, the German stock market has continued to fall by more than most. The DAX has gone from being an outperformer ? a sort of developed market BRIC index if you will ? to being a notable underperformer.
It is questionable whether or not the German economy is as weak as Q2 suggests, but the markets don?t think so. Moreover, not for the first time, the GDP breakdown suggests that there has not been any domestic consumption again. There cannot be a sustainable EMU if the biggest member never consumes, especially at a time when those that have consumed too much have to undertake significant corrective policies. This is now happening in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. All countries in the world cannot export at the same time.
Despite their considerable complex internal political issues, German policymakers can?t afford to simply hope that the EMU problem will go away. It is going to require some stronger leadership, and something that Germany will support. It seems as though German (and at least in public, French) leadership is hoping for a fresh EU proposal for a new tougher fiscal mechanism to be announced in September, which then can be adopted by all member countries. This may be the foundation for a true common Euro-denominated bond, but without the tougher fiscal discipline, the Euro bond won?t happen, at least in the minds of many German leaders. Germany needs to start opining quickly as to what kind of EMU it wants and will support, rather than simply opining on the EMU that it won?t support.
Throughout my career, I have learnt that out of every crisis comes an opportunity. The same is true again now, but it requires leadership to bring the opportunity about. Worried by the lack of economic policy leadership, many market dislocations have occurred. If the leadership comes, the opportunities created by this crisis will be snapped up by investors.
In the meantime, luckily, we have plenty of football to watch this weekend. | Tedis
Pievienots: 12.07.2008
Ziņojumi: 1483 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 22.08.2011 13:43 | trakais,
daudz burtu - aizmigu lasot. 
Varēji vismaz esenci pāris teikumos apakšā pierakstīt. | Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 22.08.2011 13:46 | Tedis
štirlics teica, ka atmiņā paliekot tieši pēdējie vārdi. Nu afftars gribēja lai mēs atceramies šito:
In the meantime, luckily, we have plenty of football to watch this weekend. | termoss
Pievienots: 26.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1706 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 22.08.2011 14:48 | Merkel: financial markets will not dictate policy!
SOS, vai viņa to teikdama domāja par tevi? | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 22.08.2011 18:22 | Aug Eiropas centrālajā bankā no finanšu institūtiem deponētā nauda. šodien tā sasniedz 107,223 Miljardi EUR. Pagājušajā ceturtdienā šī summa bija tikai 82,194 Miljardi Eur. Gada maksimums bija 145 miljardi EUR augusta sākumā. Salīdzinājumam Pēc Lehman Brothers bankrota, kad banku naudas savstarpējā aizdošana bija praktiski iesaldēta, deponētā nauda sasniedza 200miljardus.
Ja likviditāte turpmāk samazināsies, tad iestāsies atkal naudas bads, kad nekas netiks finansēts un ekonomika apstājas. Paldies dievam pagaidām tas acīmredzot vērojams tikai Eiropā. | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 23.08.2011 17:17 | Inflation will drive global stocks higher: Mark Mobius
SYDNEY/HONG KONG: Global stock markets are "bouncing along the bottom" after tumbling 16% in the past four weeks, and will start to climb as inflation accelerates, said Templeton Asset Management's Mark Mobius.
The US Federal Reserve hasn't given up supporting the economy by printing money and buying more Treasuries, said Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset's emerging markets group. The firm is buying commodity stocks, expecting raw material prices to rise, he said.
"At this point, I do think we're bouncing along the bottom," Mobius, who helps manage about $50 billion, said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday. "For us in equities, it's particularly good because people will eventually realise that to beat inflation that's coming as a result of this higher money supply, we're going to have to be into equities."
"It's been an opportunity," said Mobius. "With the amount of liquidity coming into the system, commodity prices have to be maintained at higher and higher levels. The trend is very, very clear, and that's up." | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 23.08.2011 17:31 | Pilna Mobiusa 22. augusta intervija:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRZx5cUD2IA
Un te būs kā Mobius uzminēja 2009 minimumu:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZKnUcS9lIs | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 24.08.2011 13:44 | Baltic Dry index - Ekonomiskās aktivitātes indeks, kas nav balstīts uz spekulatīvajiem darījumiem un attaino tagadnes ekonomisko aktivitāti uz kravu pārvadājumiem Baltijas jūrā. Pieņemu tas ir visticamākais rādītājs par pieprasījumu pēc izejvielām reālajā laikā (un tātad arī par ekonomisko aktivitāti):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
No grafika spriežot bija jau signāls ka ekonomikas aktivitāte ir strauji palēninājusies no februāra.
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index | gawrx
Pievienots: 30.11.2010
Ziņojumi: 219 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 27.08.2011 00:46 | Pastāstyet lūdzu, ko teica lielais BIG Bens.
Kādu laiku man nebūs iespēja klausīties zinjas.
P.S. Uzticos tikai savējiem | maxxtro
Pievienots: 11.07.2005
Ziņojumi: 7225 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 27.08.2011 14:07 | | http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-bernanke-speech | Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 27.08.2011 14:12 | nu ja pats galvenais, tad manuprāt, šis:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michael S. Hanson notes that Bernanke mentioned the word "fiscal" 15 more times than "monetary" in his speech. Putting the ball squarely in the court of the legislative and executive branches, the Fed chief declared: "Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank."
Tobiš: a man POFIG, par jūsu ekonomiku, un tā nav mana problēma | Tedis
Pievienots: 12.07.2008
Ziņojumi: 1483 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 27.08.2011 14:27 | SoS,
ir neliela problēma - ar monetāro politiku nevar risināt fiskālās problēmas.
Nav pamata gaidīt QE3, ja bezdarbs nepalielināsies līdz kādiem 9,5%. | Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 27.08.2011 15:20 | | nākoš piekdien būs non farm payrolls. Domaju ka būs kārtējie amerikāņu kalniņi tirgū | dragonfly
Pievienots: 17.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 2022 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 31.08.2011 20:33 | Situācija ir sekojoša:
SP-500 un DJ-30 turpina atrasties zem 50sma un 200sma, kas tradicionāli tiek uzskatīta par "lāču zonu".
Kamēr indeksi atradīsies šajā apgabalā, kritums var atsākties jebkurā dienā.
Lai runātu par kaut kādu tirgus atkopšanos, indeksiem jāpaceļas virs 50sma un 200sma. Kamēr tas nav noticis, tikmēr visas optimistiskās runas par to, ka "sliktākais ir aiz muguras" ir tukšu salmu kulšana.
Motto - grafiki nemelo! | dragonfly
Pievienots: 17.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 2022 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 05.09.2011 18:49 | | Aplūkojot 20 gadu grafiku uz DJ-30, sliktākā scenārija gadījumā nākamo divu gadu laikā varam pieredzēt kritumu līdz atzīmei 4000. Drūma prognoze. | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 05.09.2011 20:34 | | Nobody knows. Tāda minēšana ir bezjēdzīga. īsumā ar ASV ir skaidra lieta. Nekustamo īpašumu cikla tops bija ap 2006. gadu. No 2006 gada topa kamēr sasniegsim minimumu paies vismaz 10 gadi. Ap 2016 gadu situācijai NI tirgū jāsāk uzlaboties. Lai ekonomika augtu vajadzīgs kur investēt naudu. Nekustamā īpašuma krīze visus sektorus ieskaitot banku pavilka uz leju. Jāmeklē citi tirgi. Nav jau uz ASV jāieciklējas. | Tedis
Pievienots: 12.07.2008
Ziņojumi: 1483 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 06.09.2011 10:37 | Grieķu obligācijas vakar sasniedza jaunus rekordus:
1 gada - 82%;
2 gadu - 50%;
10 gadu - 19%;
30 gadu - 13%.
Izskatās, ka šorīd cenās jau ir iekļauta 75% defaulta varbūtība vai obligāciju nomināla dalīšana uz četri.
Tie ir gada % un summārais 30 gadu obligācijas ienesīgums ir 390%!  | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 06.09.2011 17:28 | Labā ziņa ir, ka Baltic Dry index kāpj. Redzēs ja trends turpināsies tad pēc laiciņa tam jāatspoguļojas akciju tirgū.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND | trakais
Pievienots: 24.12.2010
Ziņojumi: 332 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 09.09.2011 19:55 | Ekonomikas apskats nokopēts no austrālijas foruma no kāda usera.
My brief assessment of the world economy is as below.
First of all, I should say that the key market in the world is US market. I always watch the world stock markets when they open till close (I just sleep after 2am to 9am) I always see that all markets are following the futures of US market before it opens. When it opens they still mirror it. I can even say that European markets are only puppets of US markets. They never make own decision to make their own destiny.
- The world's economical crises at the moment is nothing close to GFC-2008. That was a credit crises in GFC. Corporations, traders, private investors, mum & dads, everybody were playing by huge leverages at those GFC times. (I got out of stock market in Oct. 2007 when I realised that. And got back in to Coal seam Gas stocks in Oct. 2008 after making a good research)
- It is different now. There is huge and unprecedented liquid money (mostly printed money by govs) in the hands of corporations and private investors in the world atm.
- Also, people all around the world have increased their savings a lot, (including people in Australia and US). They are saving and successfully reducing their debt levels.
- People are not sure where to invest that huge amount of money. One day it goes to gold, next day it goes to bonds, then it comes stock market back again. It is dizzy, unsure..
But I am sure that a big amount that money of it will come to stock market back again because of the reasons below.
- It is not possible that stock market will crash. If it crashes it will come back quickly. Actually that happened on 9th of August but bounced back in one day as stocks are at their cheapest level in last 20 years because of high earnings ratio.
- This huge money has found some safe haven in gold but it will come back quickly when everything settles down, so will gold come down.
US WILL BE MUCH STRONGER SOON;
- US will recover strongly in next 6-12 months because of the US dollars depreciation, and new form of QE3 which will be announced soon.
- $300b to jump-start jobs scheme will help to increase the exports and decrease the unemployment.
- "US Gov. agency will sue 17 banks for selling toxic mortgage backed securities" news was very important for me. I think, US gov. will get some money from those thieves and also and more importantly, will black mail them to ease and open their credits to small business in US. That will change the whole thing in US and will lower the unemployment.
- US have huge resources; especially energy resources are being uncovered by shale gas and shale oil now. That's very important.
- They have huge manufacturing capabilities with well efficient side industry sectors.
- Gas is very cheap in US now ($4 gj), while it is very expensive for Asian markets ($10 gj). This is because of shale gas. US is not exporting its gas to overseas markets, maybe because they don't want cheap energy in the world. By that way, they are killing two birds by one stone; it enables its own explorers and producers to work on their production, and keeping energy prices high for the Asian markets and getting their manufacturing costs high.
- US has more than half of 3 trillion recoverable shale oil reserves of the world (conventional oil reserves of the world is about 1.3 trillion barrel !!!). They have no energy problem like the other parts of the world. They will use this card.
- US is the biggest food exporter of the world. No one is paying much attention to that.
- US will get out of Iraq and Afghanistan soon. That will help them to balance their budgets.
POWER IS SHIFTING TO ASIA FROM EUROPE;
- I think people don't really know much about China or underestimate it. I have been in China many times. It is an incredible country. All of our cities are being very small in comparison to China's even 5th largest city.
- So, China will keep being the second dynamo of the world economy. I have no doubt about it.
- India is another incredible country with a very fast growth rate. They are following China?s path from 10 years behind.
- Asian markets are much more bigger and dynamic than European markets now.
- All countries in South America are developing a lot too.
- Africa will start to run fast soon.
- China will find new world market for trading in those areas and will don't get much effect of European crisis.
- Asian markets will need a lot of energy ( gas, oil and coal) in next 10-40 years.
EUROPE IS DYING;
- Europe is very old. The truth is that it is dying. They don't need much infrastructure anymore. They only need to be fed, but can't work as people are getting too old. (other than Mediterranean parts; they don?t like to work too hard ! I am one of them !) They have huge amount of debt (300m people carries more than half of all world's debt). They don't have resources and energy.
- UK has more than $10 trillion debt and it is already bankrupted, but no one is mentioning about it. They have nothing to sell other than just a few services.
- Only Germany can not be enough to save Europe. They will eventually leave Eurozone.
- Europe is convicted to go back in the history. That's what they don't want to accept.
AUSTRALIA WILL BE STEADY WITH HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEFLATED PROPERTY MARKET;
- Australia will have a good economy as it will keep exporting its commodities to Asian markets in next 15-20 years.
- AU dollar will appreciate a lot (1.10, 1.20, then 1.30 US) in next two years. That is because the excessive money will come and buy AU dollar which offers high yields in comparison to other markets which are all very low. That is going to be our biggest problem here. That will cause imports to increase and unemployment rates will increase accordingly.
- Unemployment will be a big problem here. Property prices will collapse (which is already started - I am watching it very close) and that will cause more unemployment and bigger problems in retail business .
....
(There are too much to say, but neither time nor the space is enough)
....
THERE IS NOTHING WRONG TO BE IN THE STOCK MARKET IF YOU ARE BUYING THE RIGHT STOCKS
There is nothing wrong here. The reality is that we are already in bear market since 2008. I know that very well and I am making good money by making good decisions. My first principle is not to buy stock market, but buying the good stocks.
If you believe that you can't understand what is happening in the world, don't be in the stock market at all.
We will be in bear market till end of 2014 but then we will see an incredible bull market rally if there is no world wide war happening.
If you are successfully making money in these bear market days, you will be doing nothing for making money after 2014. | dragonfly
Pievienots: 17.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 2022 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 13:03 | Psiholoģiski situāciju var raksturot kā lāču tirgus sākuma nolieguma fāzi, kad investori bāž galvu smiltīs un katrā sīkā rallijā saskata gaismu tuneļa galā, potenciālo šausmu izbeigšanos.
Diemžēl, mana 3 iepriekšējo krīžu pieredze liecina, ka tirgus, ja reiz paņēmis rokās zobārsta urbi, tik ātri vis neliekas mierā, turklāt urbj lēni un pacietīgi, bez narkozes. | dragonfly
Pievienots: 17.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 2022 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 13:46 | Dažreiz iešaujas prātā pavisam dīvainas domas - nu vai tās franču un vācu bankas vada totāli idioti, ka sapirkās tās Grieķijas parādzīmes tā, ka tagad aktuāls jautājums par šo banku izdzīvošanu?
Tas man atgādina seno Grieķiju, kur viens otrs pie dzīru galda nomira aiz pārēšanās | vijs666
Pievienots: 12.09.2006
Ziņojumi: 2432 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 13:58 |  ..... ja šie banķieri pirktu(nē nepirktu) par savu naudu....dziesma būtu cita , bet tā īsajā savus bonusus saņēma, a pēc tam kaut ūdens plūdi..... | janiso
Pievienots: 06.03.2009
Ziņojumi: 284 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 14:01 | >>>nu vai tās franču un vācu bankas vada totāli idioti...
Nav ideoti, viņi vienkārši pieturējās pie klasiskā risk/reward principa, bet tikai personiskā mērogā. Resp., ja grieķi izķepurotos (vai tos izglābtu), tad visi tie menedžeri saņemtu ļoti pieklājīgus bonusus, ja ne - nu tad neko, nesanāca, nu, nu slinkie grieķi! Sliktākajā gadījumā būtu jāmeklē cits darbs. Tas pats princips valdīja šeit nī buma laikā ar hipotekārajiem kredītiem. | dragonfly
Pievienots: 17.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 2022 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 14:02 | vijs666
Tur jau tā lieta, ka ar svešu naudu nav grūti riskēt
p.s. Starp citu, būtu ļoti interesanti uzzināt, kāda ir Baltijas banku ekspozīcija pret Grieķijas parādzīmēm. | janiso
Pievienots: 06.03.2009
Ziņojumi: 284 | Re: Kas notiek pasaules tirgos... 12.09.2011 14:11 | DB nesen par tiem ieguldījumiem rakstīja, igauņi ir normāli saguldījušies, latvieši ne tik daudz :
Igaunijas privātā sektora investīcijas parādu krīzes nomocītajās eirozonas valstīs jeb tā sauktajās PIIGS valstīts (Portugāle, Itālija, Īrija, Grieķija un Spānija) uz šī gada marta beigām veidojušas 1,3 miljardus eiro, vēsta Postimees.
Šī summa veido astoņus procentus no visām Igaunijas ārvalstu investīcijām. Itālijā Igaunija investējusi 663 miljonus eiro, savukārt Grieķijā 28 miljonus eiro.
Tomēr, kā Db.lv uzzināja Latvijas Bankā, tad Latvijā valda konservatīvāka gaisotne un investīciju apjoms parādu krīzes skartajās valstīs ir neliels.
«Latvijas privātā sektora (bankas, ieguldījumu fondi, iedzīvotāji) ieguldījumi kā Grieķijas, tā citu parāda krīzes skarto valstu valsts un privātajos vērtspapīros ir ļoti nelieli - 9.2 miljoni latu Grieķijā un 30.3 miljoni latu šai valstu grupā kopumā. Attiecinot šo summu pret banku sektora kopējiem aktīviem, tie ir tikai 0.15%,» Db.lv pastāstīja Latvijas Bankas Statistikas pārvaldes galvenais finanšu statistiķis Hermanis Djomkins. | |
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