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Forumu saraksts/Treidings/Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
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Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 11:56
Pēdējā laikā, faktiski visu 2014 gadu, revidējot prāvo grāmatu plauktu, izvēlējos labākās grāmatas, kuras bija vērts pārlasīt vēlreiz, nu un tā tad arī pēdējā laikā ar to esmu aizrāvies.Šī - Pītera Linča, manā skatījumā ir viena no labākajām, un tājā esošā informācija - nav novērtējama naudā. 
Un tā nu radās ideja - dalīties te forumā ar labāko no grāmatām, ko lasam. Jo dažreiz viens teikums ir visas grāmatas vērts, bet ir grāmatas, kurās gandrīz katru frāzi var citēt. 
Man ir tas sliktais (laikam) paradums, grāmatas lasīt ar flomāsteru rokā, necienigi svītrojot un atzīmējot to, kas liekas interesants, svarīgs, vai vienkārši jautri uzrakstīts. Tas laikam no tiem laikiem, kad bērnībā atceros vēl redzēju vecas grāmatas vecajā latviešu drukā, kurās ar vectēva roku ar ķīmisko zīmuli (bija tādi - saslapinot, tas mainīja krāsu uz zilu), bija pasvītrotas svarīgākās vietas. 
Tā mēs varētu samazināt izglītības ciklu - daloties ar šiem domu graudiem, mēs iegūstam visi. Līdz ar to šo - šis zars ir pirmais - eksperimentālais. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 11:57
My high-tech aversion caused me to make fun of typical biotech enterprise: $100M in cash from selling shares, one hundred Ph.D's, 99 microscopes, and zero revenues. 

Mans komentārs: smiekls
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 12:00
Dumb money is only dumb, when it listens to smart money.

Mans komentārs: Bet te jāpiezīmē, ka Linčs grāmatu rakstīja dot.com buma laikā, pie tam tad - kad tas vēl nebija nopūties. Un šeit viņš vēršas pret newsletteriem un runājošām galvām kas haipo jauno interneta kantori ar 0 revenue. 

Tagad, seeking alfas laikos, vairs nav izteikta "smart money" - visi ir dumb un smart money vienlaicīgi. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 12:05
As I look back on it now, it's obvious, that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock market than say, studying statistics. Investing in stocks is art, not science, and people who have been trained to rigidly quantify everything, have a big disadvantage. 

Mans komentārs: bet šis tomēr arī jāskatās kontekstā. Izraujot šo frāzi no konteksta, var likties, ka investīcijas un treidings ir kaut kas ar gamblingu un uz dullo (gut feeling) veicams bizness.
Tā tas arī nav. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 12:07
I studied statistics, advanced calculus, and quantitative analysis. Quantitative analysis taught me that things I saw happening at Fidelity couldn't be really happening. 

Komentārs: smiekls  
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
01.06.2014 14:52
The market stood at 899 and promptly began a five month slide to 801. Fidelity Magellan has 20 million $ in assets. There were only 40 stocks in portfolio, and Ned Johnson, Fidelity head man, recommended that I reduce the number to 25. I listened politely, and then went out and raised number to 60 stocks, six month later to 100 stocks, and soon after that - to 150 stocks. 

I did not do it to be contrary. I did it because I saw bargain, I could not resist buying it, and in those days bargains was everywhere.

Ko secinam?

To, ka vēlams lai mums ir 20 miljoni, un vēl tik pat daudz akcijās, tad var pārdzīvot da jebkādus kritumus, un kad uz ielas līst asinis, uzlasīt bargainus, kā Pīters Linčs. Man ir aizdomas, ka mums te ne visiem tā ir, tāpēc reducējam padomu uz to, ka pie jebkādiem apstākļiem vai trenda, ir jābūt sausam rezerves pulverim. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:11
Whoever imagines, that average Wallstreet professional is looking for reasons to buy exciting stocks hasn't spent much time on Wallstreet. The fund manager most likely is looking for the reasons not to buy exciting stocks, so that he can offer proper excuses if those exciting stocks happen to go up.

Mans komentārs: skatamies, lai neiekristu tajā pašā slazdā. Teiksim mans excel fails, laika gaitā jau palicis tik liels, ka parametru skaits tajā sen vairs nelien vienā "monitorā", un NEKAD nevar atrast tādu papīru kurā visos parametros viss ir topā. Nākas iet uz kompromisu.It īpaši šādos buļlu tirgos kā tagad. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:15
There is an unwritten rule on Wall Street: " You will never lose your job losing your clients money in IBM".
If IBM goes bad and you bought it, the clients and bosses will ask: What's wrong with that damn IBM lately?"But if La Quinta Motor Inns goes bad, they'll ask: "What's wrong with you"?

Mans komentārs: Nu, ar zilajām fiškām arī nav tā, kā nekad nav jāpērk, kā ar visām akcijām - timings ir svarīgs. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:25
the stocks I try to buy are the very stocks that traditional fund managers try to overlook. In other words, I continue to think like an amateur as frequently as possible. 

Mans komentārs: Tikai te jāsaprot, ka tieši amatieriem ienāk prātā pirkt zilās fiškas topos, pirkt haipotas akcijas ko runājošās galvas promotē pa TV, utt. Ar thinking like amateur domāts, ka amatiera domāšana ir daudz flexiblāka, "thinking out of the box", ja vēlamies, thinking out of "oficiālais saraksts"

Pīters Linčs noteikti pirktu arī brīvā saraksta akcijas Latvijā, ne tikai oficiālā saraksta tongue
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:30
Stocks are most likely to be accepted as prudent at the moment they are not.

Komentārs: Klasika. Taksisti, kas runā par akcijām, spekulācijām ar Nī utt. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:34
To me, investment is simply a gamble, in which you've managed to tilt your odds in your favour.

Mans komentārs: Interesanti, mūsu biržas vadība parakstītos zem šī? smirk
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:45
By asking some basic questions about companies, you can learn, which are likely to grow and prosper, which are unlikely to grow and prosper, and which are entirely misterious. You can never be certain what will happen, but each new occurence - a jump in earnings, the sale of unprofitable subsidary, the expansion to new markets - is like turning new card. As long as cards suggest favourable odds of success, you stay in the hand.

Komentārs: Не очко обычно губит, а к одиннадцати туз
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 05:47
If six out of ten of my stocks perform as expected, then I am thankful. Six out of ten is all it takes to produce an enviable record on Wallstreet.

Komentārs: Atceraties mūsu veco frāzi, kurai jau laikam 10 gadi - MM rulez? 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 06:35
Gan bez citātiem, bet viena no galvenajām domām, kas arī visu laiku caurvij grāmatas lappuses, ir doma, ka viens no labākajiem hintiem, kas var būt ir skatīties apkārt - t.i, redzēt ko cilvēki pērk, lieto utt. 
Linčs min piemērus, ka sieva esot ieteikusi paskatīties Legg's zeķubikses ražotāju, jo visas draudzenes un pati tagad pērkot tikai šo brendu, skatīties kas atrodas vannasistabā uz plauktiņa u.t.t utjpr. 
Tas atgādina veidu, kurā Hermanis izvēlējās Facebook zināmā mērā. (bērni ar telefoniem uz ielas feisbukā). Gan tikai Linčs uzsver, ka atrast populāru produktu, ir tikai trešdaļa no darba  pēc tam jānalizē pašas kompānijas stāvoklis, un jānopērk pareizajā momentā (valuation). 
martin
martin
Pievienots: 18.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 4640
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
02.06.2014 08:40
Par sauso pulveri.
Pilnīgi tam piekrītu. Nu jau vairākus gadus cenšos turēt visu laiku minimāli 20% sausus. Ja nav, sausā pilvera, tad ātri skatos, kas ir vājākais portfelī lai to pārdotu. Jo sausais pulveris par vārgu pieaugumu ir daudz labāks.
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:13
Par cocktail party talks:
When ten people would rather talk to a dentist for a plaque that to a manager of an equity fund about stocks, it's likely that a market is about to turn up.

Mans komentārs: vienīgais, es īsti nezinu kā izskatās "cocktail party", un cik smagi tur ASV piedzeras uz beigām
A tā - tas pats "taksista indikators"
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:15
When a neighbors tell me what to buy and then I wish I had taken their advice, it's a sure sign that market had reached the top and is due for a tumble.
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:16
A great patients drug us the one, that cures an affliction once and for all, but a great investors drug is one, that the patient has to keep buying.
__________
Mildronāts?
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:19
Investing without research, is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards. 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:21
the same couple, that spends the weekend searching for the best deal on airfares to the London buys 500 shares of KLM without even 5 minutes learning about the company
_______________________
ev3 
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:34
Isn't that Houndstooth over there in his recliner, reading the Consumer Reports article on relative thickness and absorbency of the 5 popular brands of toilet paper? He's trying to figure out whether to or not to switch to Charmin. But will he give equal time to real annual report of Procter and Gamble, the company that makes Charmin before he invests 5000$ in the stock? Oc ourse not. He will buy the stock first, and later toss the Procter and Gamble annual report into garbage can.

______________
Houndstooth ir izdomāts personāžs, kas visu dara nepareizi
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 05:39
Labi, tālāk lirika beidzas, un šeit apskatīsim pašu galveno, ar ko Linčs ir slavens, respektīvi, viņa akciju sadalījumu kategorijās. 

Once I had established size of the company to others in industry, next i place it to one of six general categories - slow growers, stalwarts, fast growers, cyclicals, assets plays, and turnarounds.
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 09:45
Slow growing companies, as you might have guessed, grow very slowly - more or less inline with nations GNP.Usually these are large and aging companies, which did not started that way. They started as fast growers and eventually popped out, either way they had gone as far as they could, or else they got too tired of making out all their chances.
_____________________

Piemeklēšu ilustrācijas šodienas datumu:

Tie ir visi utility protams, piemēram leģendārais Consolidated Edison: http://tinypic.com/r/t62ryg/8

WGL Holdings (gas utility): http://tinypic.com/r/5djxq0/8
______________________
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 10:31
Protams, ne visi utiltiies automātiski ir slow groweri, te piemēram UGI: http://tinypic.com/r/11j4z0m/8 tas ir stalwarts
Pie tam:
Adjusted (Operating) Earnings Growth Rate 11.0%

Dividend Growth Rate: (13yr Avg) 6.1%
Seller of Smiles
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511
Re: Peter Lynch: One Up on Wall Street
04.06.2014 11:36
the chart of the slow grower such as Houston Industries resembles the topographical map of Delaware, which as you probably know, has no hills. 
_______________

Mūsu laikos šīs akcijas vairs nav, bet ilustrācijai pilnīgi der arī piemēram ARTNA - Water Utility: https://www.tradingview.com/x/cEC6LlRU 
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