Watch lista stav sis: ROKU
ROKU IN 1 MINUTE
What It Does
Roku is the leading platform for consuming streaming content, whether it's on a paid service (e.g., Netflix) or ad supported (YouTube). Viewers can access everything they need from Roku's home screen.
Why You Should Buy
- Roku has become an aggregator: Tens of millions of viewers access streaming content via Roku.
- Average revenue per user is skyrocketing, showing Roku has a lucrative spot in the value chain.
- The market is focused on a post-COVID slump, offering a great entry price.
- Industry: Entertainment
- Size: Large Cap
- Region: U.S.
- Dec. 15 Price: $203.94
- Allocation: Many Fools choose to start with a small amount — 2% of their portfolio's overall value, for instance — and add a little at a time. You can also explore different models of portfolio allocations with our Allocator Tool.
TMF INVESTING FUNDAMENTALS
- Headquarters: San Jose, Calif.
- Website: Roku Investor Relations
- Market Cap: $28.26 billion
- Cash/Debt: $2,180 million / $82 million
- Revenue (2019/'20/TTM)1,129 million / $1,778 million / $2,549 million
- Earnings (2019/'20/TTM)$60 million) / ($18 million) / $286 million
We generally recommend investors buy shares of at least 25 companies and hold them for at least 5 years. Learn more about our investing fundamentals here.OUR TOP INVESTMENTS TO HOLD FOR 5 YEARS
See which stocks and ETFs our investing team thinks are the top investments to buy for members to build out their own Foolish portfolios here.
If all you've ever done is buy its plug-in dongle, you can be forgiven for thinking we're crazy to recommend buying shares of Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU). Obviously, accessing all of your streaming services from a single TV screen is convenient. But that dogle is a one-off purchase of hardware that isn't that lucrative for the company.
Here's the thing: Your (potential) ignorance is a feature — not a bug — of just how stealthily lucrative Roku is. Yes, you are the customer Roku wants to nab with its dongle (or a television with Roku's operating system preinstalled). But after that, the primary customers are big-name content creators (like Netflix(NASDAQ: NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) ) or advertisers.
In other words, Roku gets you to pay itmoney so that...you can eventually become the product it sells to big corporations. That might sound Machiavellian. But given the popularity of the platform with everyday folks like you and me, we think it's simply a brilliant idea, brilliantly executed.
The Big-Picture Opportunity
Let's get into the nitty-gritty of how Roku actually makes money off of its viewers. It splits it's "platform" revenue into three buckets:
- Transaction video on demand (TVOD): This is where you purchase content (like a movie on Amazon) for viewing via Roku. The content provider splits part of the fee with Roku.
- Subscription video on demand (SVOD): If you start using Roku but already have (for instance) a Netflix account, Roku doesn't get anything. If, however, you sign up for a new account via Roku, it gets to perpetually obtain a small slice of that subscription.
- Advertising-supported video on demand (AVOD): Similar to linear TV, this is where Roku gets a slice of advertising revenues from free streaming content.
While the company doesn't break out absolute numbers, the third is considered to account for the lion's share of platform revenue.
How big is the opportunity? Statista estimates that $60 billion was spent on linear (traditional) TV advertising in the United States last year. Connected TV — or CTV, which is what Roku offers up — clocked in at just $9 billion. Over time, we think those figures will converge, with CTV eventually taking over. eMarketer believes CTV ad spending will triple to more than $27 billion by 2025.
And we're just talking about the United States. The Roku Channel, a major growth driver for AVOD revenue, is also available in Canada and the United Kingdom. And Roku is making slow and steady progress to expand into both Europe and Latin America.
The United States still accounts for more than 90% of revenue. But these international ambitions mean the total addressable market for Roku will be an order of magnitude larger in the years to come.
Why We're Excited About Roku
Right now, any revenue Roku makes from selling dongles or via partnerships with TV makers is largely at cost. Those "players" generate no gross profit.
That's fine with us. The future of this company is in collecting those growing advertising budgets once the Roku operating system is installed. While the migration of those budgets has been slow, they're gaining steam.
Nowhere is that more evident than in Roku's average revenue per user (ARPU). Between 2018 and 2020, ARPU showed solid 27% annualized growth. But the pandemic catalyzed CTV advertising, and Roku's third-quarter ARPU jumped 49% to $40.10. That coincided with a 94% jump in platform gross profit.
Scroll left/right to view wide tablesMetric201820192020TTMGrowth RatePlatform gross profit$296 million$478 million$765 million$1,336 million73%ARPU$17.95$23.14$28.76$40.1034%
Data source: SEC filings. TTM = trailing 12 months. Growth rate = compound annual growth rate, or CAGR. Note that this does not include revenue from partnerships.
Industry reports show Roku accounting for 45% of CTV ads, far ahead of rivals like Amazon's FireTV (14%) and Samsung (12%). Even if Roku simply maintains that market share (we believe it can increase), the pie is growing so rapidly that gross profit should continue climbing.
Given these trends, it might be surprising to note that Roku stock has lost more than half of its value since this summer. The main culprit: a marked slowdown in the growth of both active accounts and total hours streamed.
Thanks to the pandemic, those two figures grew 39% and 55%, respectively, in 2020. But with communities opening back up and supply chain issues hitting both TV manufacturers and Roku's dongle makers, that growth has slowed.
Scroll left/right to view wide tablesMetric201820192020TTMGrowth RateActive accounts27.1 million36.9 million51.2 million56.4 million31%Hours streamed23.7 billion37.8 billion58.7 billion70.7 billion49%
Data source: SEC filings. TTM = trailing 12 months. Growth rate = compound annual growth rate, or CAGR. N/A = Not applicable.
We think, however, investors need to zoom out and take a more holistic view. It would be silly to think hours streamed could continue growing at a COVID pace in a postlockdown world. But that doesn't mean the long-term opportunity has changed one bit. And once supply chain issues work themselves out, we're excited to see what the real demand for Roku's technology is as active accounts continue to grow.
The market is giving us a gift. We're glad to take advantage by recommending shares now.
Potential Business Risks
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Talk About ROKU
See how you can tell if this investment is going right — or wrong.
As with any business, however, Roku isn't without risks. Foremost among those risks: Even after its 50% haircut, Roku's stock is expensive by almost any valuation metric. It trades for more than 12 times sales and around 100 times trailing free cash flow. As long-term investors who understand Roku isn't optimized for profitability, that doesn't bother us. That said, prepare for volatility based on the valuation.
Of greater importance is how Roku handles that competitive landscape. For most of its history, Roku has been able to keep Amazon's FireTV at bay. We expect that to continue...but it's also worth noting that Amazon has taken many businesses to their graveyard by improving incrementally and undercutting on cost.
Along the same vein, it will be important to monitor content owners that allow their products onto Roku's platform. It wasn't until the 11th hour that Roku and Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) YouTube extended their agreement. And while YouTube leaving Roku wouldn't have been an immediate death knell, it could have signaled tougher times ahead.
Why Roku Is Worth an Investment Today
Lost in our enthusiasm for Roku is the fact that we're buying a proven winner run by a founder-led team with lots of skin in the game. Anthony Wood has been at the helm throughout Roku's transition from hardware maker to platform company.
The stock is almost a nine-bagger in just four years on the public markets. Given the size of Roku's opportunity, we think the company still has a decades-long growth runway ahead of it. Buy shares right now and you can enjoy the rest of the ride for 55% off all-time highs.