| | Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Holy Grail 20.10.2004 23:45 |
Te tādu interesantu rakstiņu atradu. Varbūt kādam, kurš ir vēl iestidzis Svētā Grāla meklējumos to būs aktuāli palasīties. Sorry par angļu valodu.
The Search for the Holy Grail
-Chris Tate
When traders talk about trading system design and its pitfalls they often talk about the search for the Holy Grail. They talk about the obsession of finding one specific indicator that will guarantee them continual success in the markets. Some software packages even come with indicators that are known as the Holy Grail and this only adds to the mythology of an ultimate indicator. Unfortunately whilst all traders talk of their search for the Grail few actually understand the legend behind this search and even fewer understand its relevancy to trading. And most importantly how understanding the legend can improve trading performance.
Most are familiar with the Christian myth surrounding the Grail and the search for it by knights of the round table. This myth itself first appears in written form in a 12th century French fable entitled Conte del Graal (Story of the Grail), this tale is also known as Perceval and is believed to have been written in about 1180. The myth itself revolves around a vessel from which Christ is supposed to have drunk at his last supper and which was also used to catch some of his blood during his crucifixion. The Grail was then carried to Britain by Joseph of Arimathea, where it lay hidden for centuries. The search for the Grail became the principal quest of the knights of the round table. It was thought that the Grail was guarded by a custodian known as the Fisher King. King Arthur believed that the finding the Grail would cure Camelot of its ills and restore its glory.
Given its supposed history it is easy to understand the importance of the Grail to Christian mythology but the question remains as to why this is important to traders is less obvious. Most traders look merely at the external features of the legend, the fact that it was a fruitless search, the grail was never found. Traders associate this with their quest for the perfect indicator yet this is only half the legend. Being a parable the legend of the grail requires a bit of interpretation. King Arthur send his knights on the quest to enable Camelot to recover. At the time of the quest Camelot was racked by both internal dissent and an external threat. Arthur thought finding the grail would fix these problems. The meaning of the parable is clear it is about the individual not the situation. It is about individuals looking for an external solution to what is an internal problem.
Such a situation manifests itself in traders. How often has the lament been heard, if only I had a better system, or if only I had different data, or maybe if I tried Fibonacci numbers for my moving averages. Many traders have even believed that if they change the colour of their indicators that this will somehow improve their trading. As if altering these external variables will alter their trading performance.
It is undoubtedly true that we need entry signals or setups to enter the market but their importance in trading is vastly overrated. Tomes have been written about signal generation, indicators move in and out of vogue, the current trendy indicator appears to be the moving average ribbon. Charts of price action are now being buried beneath layer upon layer of coloured lines. It is as if by obscuring raw price action traders somehow hope to divine its intent.
Yet Charles LeBeau author of The Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of Futures Markets claims to have tested every possible combination of moving average conceivable and found their performance to be little better than random probability. In any serious testing trend following indicators struggle to have a reliability of above 50%. The MACD histogram, which is thought to be among the best of all indicators, often has a reliability of below 50%. I have personally run a test trading the SPI on an intraday basis by tossing a coin in the morning and found it to be profitable. It is extremely difficult for traders to accept that the tools they use may not be as effective as they thought, or that their methodology may have a reliability below that of simply tossing a coin.
If your trading breaks down then it is more than likely due to some psychological block not your indicators and finding new indicators will not improve your trading. What will improve your trading is an understanding that trading is far more than a search for the ultimate indicator. What has been demonstrated from interviews with top traders is that methodology or the means by which they engage the market is largely irrelevant. What is important is their underlying psychology and how they apply this to the market, it is not what number they use for their moving averages.
Top traders have numerous features in common, they are organized, disciplined, self reliant, analytical. All of these are characteristics of individuals who excel in any endevour but there is one characteristic that truly sets them apart. They are all grown ups, this may seem like a somewhat facetious remark but top traders realize that ultimately their success or more importantly failure comes down to them as individuals. Traders who look for the Grail are looking for an external crutch to lean on and to blame when things go wrong, these are the same sort of people who blame their broker when a trade goes wrong. If you have chosen to take someone else's advice or you believe that indicators are all there is to trading then that is your problem no one else's. No magic indicator will save you from yourself and your own folly.
What will save you is an understanding that internal problems such as a lack of discipline or an inability to accept personal responsibility for your trading cannot be solved by some external solution such as downloading hundreds of indicators for either your Supercharts or Metastock packages.
This is the lesson of the Grail
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Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 29.01.2005 14:31 |
Search for the Holy Grail in Trading
by Joe Ross
We’ve almost all heard the question, “How’s the market treating you today?” When I hear that question, I have to laugh. The market does not wake up with an attitude. It is not grumpy and complaining. It is not angry with me having decided to ignore me. Neither does it start out as benign, wanting to give me a loving hug.
The market is neither good nor bad. It is neutral, but at times seductive, coaxing me to place my bet so that it can diabolically grab my money. If I am right on my bet, I am happy. If I am wrong, I’m unhappy. The market is forever making someone happy and someone else unhappy. This is true whether the market is rising or falling. The only market participant who is almost always delighted with the market is your broker. He wins when you win and he wins when you lose, at least for the short term.
Presumably, everyone reading this is currently trading or intends to start trading soon. If you have never traded before and are tempted, how should you proceed? Is there truly an opportunity out there to make a killing in the market, or are you the one who is most likely to have your head handed to you?
Let’s examine three viewpoints.
The first viewpoint is from those who have tried trading and failed. It unravels as follows: Those most closely connected to the action — brokers, advisors, and money managers — badly want your body (or is it your money?). Why is that? It’s because recruiting new lambs for the slaughter is actually the business that they are in. They need fresh blood to replace the burned-out cases ready for, or already on, the discard pile.
The second viewpoint is from those who have never traded, but have the inside scoop from a friend or distant relative, or from wherever. It goes something like this: “Oh, you better not mess around with commodities. I heard about a guy who lost his shirt trying to trade those.” Or, “Man, you don’t want someone delivering a freight car full of pork bellies to your house, do you?” However they say it, they will give you an abundance of horror stories about someone they knew or heard of who lost heavily, and had bushels of wheat arriving at his front door.
Both of the above are bunk. Lies, half-truths, and not to be believed.
The third viewpoint is also in need of debunking. It goes like this: “Call market tops and bottoms. Buy my geocentric, astro-parabolic trading system, and never have to work hard another day in your life. That’s right, you can live like me. Drive a Rolls Royce. Sail your own yacht. Live and work anywhere in the world while beautiful women in bikinis wait on you hand and foot serving you delectable food and drink. I used to be poor but then I discovered the secret of the markets. You can too! Why am I willing to reveal my secrets? I just have so much, I want to share. Even now, I can’t possibly spend all the money I make while sitting back and letting the markets work for me.”
Based on statistics, the average trader is up against formidable odds. You can understand that, can’t you? It is because the average trader expects to beat the market without doing very much thinking. He expects to win doing what everyone else is doing. But you cannot beat the market thinking like an average trader. In fact, you can’t “beat the market” (I hate that term) at all unless you are able to develop a considerable trading edge over the crowd.
If you expect to make some fast, easy money, with little or no effort, you are in the wrong place. Yet such nonsense continues to be spewed out to those who don’t know any better and to those who ought to know better. The search for the holy grail goes on.
Joe Ross
Trading Educators Inc.
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yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 15:49 |
Par Van Tharp grāmatu šis laikam būs atbilstošākais zars.
Nu tad tā - vai kāds ir reāli mēģinājis treidot to random sistēmu, kur pozīcijas taisa pilnīgā randomā un riskē ar 1% kapitāla (stoplosi liek 3xATR, attiecīgi arī izrēķina pozīcijas lielumu) un treilingo to stopu uz augšu? |
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 15:53 |
| es lasīju, bet nemēģināju. klau, a nafig tev random, ņem to pašu MM, un liec klāt DD, edge tak būs labāks, tas ir noteikti. ja nu tu neesi protams haosa fanāts |
yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 15:59 |
toties randomā opportunities ir neierobežoti daudz  |
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 16:04 |
| njā... |
Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 18:10 |
To Yopcix: a kā tas atbilst tēmai par Holy Grail? Šķiet, ka Van Tharps arī ir apgalvojis: 'There's no Holy Grail !'  |
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 18:27 |
nu viņš grib atrast holy grail. ņemam grafiku, liekam random entry generate, un menedžējam stopus, un guļam Taiti pludmalē, kā Day Traders ar  un  |
Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 07.07.2005 22:50 |
Mjāā...kurš gan to negribētu  |
yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 08:46 |
nu es gan no tās grāmatas sapratu, ka holy grail eksistē, tikai tas katram ir jāatrod pašam  |
yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 08:47 |
| tb tas katram var būt un, ļoti iespējams, arī ir unikāls. |
Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 10:47 |
Nu jā, Tharpa k-gs to vairāk saista ar treidera psiholoģiskajām īpatnībām:
Viens no Holy Grail meklēšanas noslēpumiem ir būt unikālam un sekot tikai savai treidinga sistēmai, kas atbilst katra treidera spējām, psiholoģijai un personībai kopumā. Holy Grail - atslēga lielam profitam - atrodot sevi un saprotot savu psiholoģiju. Ir jānovērtē spēja domāt un darboties finansu tirgos unikāli.
Holy Grail - nav maģiska treidinga sistēma, bet tā ir iekšējā cīņa ar sevi |
Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 10:56 |
| P.S. To Yopcix: ātrumā vienkārši padomāju, ka domā, ka Holy Grail ir kādā treidinga sistēmā, jo sāki pieminēt TA elementus, tjipa ATR + vēl sāki runāt par zināmiem Stop-Losiem Bet pēc būtības - it's all about psychology |
yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 11:03 |
| nu uz unikalitāti jau nu viņš nespieda. Galvenais bija treidot ar sistēmu ir saskaņā ar tavām emocijām, pasaules un tirgus uztveri, kā arī mērķiem. |
Friday13
Pievienots: 01.10.2004
Ziņojumi: 624 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 11:16 |
| Nu bet, emocijas, tirgus redzējums, mērķi taču katram cilvēkam ir unikāli Nav jau 2 identisku indivīdu ar vienādām personībām (pat starp dvīņiem ne ) Tā jau ir tā saucamā unikalitāte. |
yoPCix
Pievienots: 18.12.2004
Ziņojumi: 1299 | Re: Holy Grail 08.07.2005 11:22 |
| bet sistēmu tu vari lietot kaut visprastāko - kaut randomu - ja tas pilnībā atbilst tavai personībai. Un viss būs OK. |
Seller of Smiles
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 9511 | Re: Holy Grail 17.07.2005 16:32 |
Par diversifikācijas holy grail šeit:
http://www.wallstreet.lv/index.php?id=22446 |
GE
Pievienots: 22.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1557 | Re: Holy Grail 15.09.2005 23:11 |
man pēdējās nedēļās pārdomas nepārtrauktas par tēmu kvotisms utt...
galvenais punkts kad es sēžu pie ekrāna un skatos tirgus dziļumu, novērtēju situāciju, un visu laiku domāju ka noteikti ir kāds kam ir lielāks kapitāls un viņš zīmē to bildi un precīzi zin kas man tur ir jāierauga, tieši tā pat ar grafiku, kāds viņu zīmē un precīzi cenšas lai man rastos iespaids ...
un pēc tam rodas teicieni par mērfija likumiem(priekš mazajiem treideriem) utt .. |
Day Trader
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 7722 | Re: Holy Grail 16.09.2005 02:20 |
Labi teikts Misteram tirgum paties`am pofig, vin`s iet pa savu cel`u  |
hen3
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1039 | Re: Holy Grail 16.09.2005 07:08 |
| Man bija kaut kas līdzigs, |
hen3
Pievienots: 16.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1039 | Re: Holy Grail 16.09.2005 07:17 |
| Man bija kaut kas līdzīgs, tikai man šakotnēji likās, ka esmu patoloģisks neveiksminieks un bezmaz vai pamanos noķert īsto brīdi, lai atvērtu longu tieši pirms kursa kritiena... tomēr ar laiku pieleca, ka pie vainas ir pieredzes un pacietības trūkums, lai ļautu akcijai iet savu ceļu (+vēl protams jautājums par pozīcijas lielumu utt)... lieki piebilst, ka pēc tam, kad sanervozējies likvidēju pozīciju tūlīt pēc tās atvēršanos, 95% gadījumu pēc īslaicīga kritiena akcija tomēr aizgāja tur kur vajag... |
GE
Pievienots: 22.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1557 | Re: Holy Grail 16.09.2005 10:02 |
| nē man nav nekāda paranoja vai kaut kas tamlīdzīgs ... tā pat tirgus ir konkrēti investori, attiecīgi kaut vai uz RFB piemēra tas ka šodien uzliekask DPR 0,95 100K , nebūt ne obligāti nozīmē ka riņķī grozās liels nolējējs , tik pat labi tam pašam investoram ir bid uz 0,90 un daudz .. (bet jau slēptais) doma ir parādīt citiem ainu savādāku nekā tā reāli ir ... |
GE
Pievienots: 22.08.2004
Ziņojumi: 1557 | Re: Holy Grail 16.09.2005 10:03 |
protams nejau par DPR reāli ir runa  |
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