Piedodiet man, pārkopēšu. Ir tur protams arī kardināli pretēji viedokļi - kam interesē, lai palasa.
I'll tell you as well that there is an absolute majority have a very superficial understanding of what is KNF'as what he is doing now and what will happen in the future. The company is not just a business that builds a house or bake muffins. This is the structure of national importance, which helps the state to implement certain strategic goals, so this investment and business growth is programmed and inevitable. In addition, nesugebat look beyond this day.
I explain what I'm here.
KNF'as the Baltic countries and the Baltic Sea basin regional business, therefore, to understand it and understand what it can fall out in the future, it must first be very careful to follow all of the state (and surrounding states) level resulting from the energy and transport sector news. And especially important to be able to read what is written at and told between the lines. This will help to more accurately predict what can be expected from this company in the future.
I personally consider KNF'ą today the best long-term (3-5 years.) Investment in the Baltic stock exchanges, because everything plays out towards the fact that this company after 3-5 years. is likely to be twice as much business than today.
Although today KNF'as already have (maybe one can say yet and will have) a fairly well diversified activities, but fundamentally we can say that this is the handling of oil products (or light and dark oil products) and LNG handling (next year still appears low use of LNG distribution and LNG bunkering in the Baltic sea). Interestingly, what 5 years ago KNF'as basically dropped heavy oil products and loader both. Most of it was focused activities.
The situation began to change basically somewhere around 2011. when it was decided (state level) that KNF'as has become an international oil products and LNG gas transport the player with all the other emerging from the additional activities (it was in his own time minimally written in the press, although not to mention bluntly about it, because all press attention has been paid only LNG terminal) basically, this means that KNF'as invest a lot of money into the development. It also means a significant growth in the same business.
What works for business, he knows one simple thing - making investments during the business usually stands at the same level (generation activities may temporarily even worsen). The entire show (business growth) begins at the time when their work begins to do what has been invested (ROI starts with joy).
KNF'as for 2012-2014. the development of the (supply of LNG, as well as oil products handling) invested roughly 80 million. Euro. At that time the company's operating results were as follows more or less on a local, although in some respects and deteriorated temporarily.
What then happened already all know - KNF'as as business from 2014 through roughly two years increased by 3 times. And suddenly opened eyes for most investors - need to buy. And what remains to do when the company suddenly relative indicators of unattractive is about "oba how cheap stocks, investing as much as Oba, Oba as the business grows." I personally susipirkinėjau it when the port of Klaipeda aplaukinėjo INDEPENDENCE ship. It must be recognized that the same seize too late to do so, although the information on what is happening followed the long term. At that time, I was very involved in the business bet, so the investment focus was hooked and superficial.
In other words, 3 years of expertise are allowed KNF'ui business grown roughly three times. Minor result (humorously say) is the share price rise roughly 2 times. And although the share price rise in the last time was pretty fast, but it turned out just because investors are just not interested in a long time at what is happening with the company. You need to say a big thank you KNF'o managers that began work correctly with investors (business strategy, dividends, clear and understandable reports, understandable results are published monthly and so on.). After all, even RPG learned to correctly write, what are the general revenue of the company, because before this all year, but the receiver did not realize that the LNG business is KNF'o one of the activities, rather than separate UAB or AB, and your article some sort of meadows write. Then the offset for all eyes and saw that the exchange is standing behind the jackpot. By the way, I wonder if the Baltic stock exchanges is at least one other company, which in two years has managed himself as the business has grown at least twice. It seems not.
In any case, according to the current situation (which is what is being done now and will be done in the future) it is likely that the company till now has not only more than half-way towards the more likely the company will be around for 2020 and later. Now it began the second wave of investment, where the company is the development of a comprehensive (and soon will be) invested roughly 100 million.Euro. Investment for LNG terrestrial distribution station (27 mln. EUR), the remaining amount of oil products in new containers and build a new (third) railway trestle (the word with all necessary infrastructure).
Probably about LNG gas KNF'o business will not write, because as has been written in the press ad libitum. You need only say two key moments:
1. 2019. the completion of the construction of cross-border gas connections: Lithuania-Poland, Poland-Ukraine, Estonia-Finland. As a result, KNF'o LNG terminal will have access and will be able to sell gas to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Poland and the Ukraine (collectively, this is about 80 billion. Cube market per year). How successful do so, a separate issue here, but I guess that our LNG terminal's annual capacity of 4 billion. cubes so atsidariusi market fully absorb. Until recently, nobody thought that we'll have a total of LNG terminal has nekalbat that the terminal at the start of gas technically we could sell only in Lithuania.
2. LNG bunkering - this other small Baltic Sea gas terminals in the supply of LNG gas. At the same time they are using the gas supply vessels. This is a new area, but growing as the yeast.
But I am even more intrigued by the fact that a lot invested in the oil handling capacity building. I would say very much invested in comparison with the fact that the KNF'ą loading of oil products from Lithuania and Belarus. Naturally, the question arises whether the new capacity would be used and who will use them.
This question I have long turned their heads and saw only a single option - Belarus. Due to the country's oil products handling Lithuania strongly compete with Latvia. I would say very strongly, because this matter Lithuania pasikinkė not only KNF'ą, but AB and Lithuanian railways. No one does not speak about it out loud, but pasibendravau with some of these issues with knowledgeable people, and my assumptions and thinking appears to be quite correct.
At first, I wrote that in order to understand what is happening and what will happen with KNF'u need to look at the situation in a much wider and deeper. You just stare into the financial statements will not help anything.
Perhaps here in the forum by those in nobody neužfiksavot one very important information about the "ON TV" maybe two years ago was a very brief mention. AB Lithuanian Railways sought EU support for the railway line from the Belarusian border to the port of Klaipeda electrification. In other words, instead of diesel electric locomotives are used, which would allow countries intend petroleum products transportation costs cut by a third. EU money for this appointment of all the forces opposed to it and blocked both in Latvia and Estonia, as they are well aware that in this case, nothing can compete with Lithuania on countries intend cargo. How many were able to find out that both Latvia and Estonia, and technically (what that technically means nothing to me precisely explained) would not be able to implement it. If we still seek, this would require a disproportionately invest large sums of money, is neither one nor the other does not want and can not do.
Lithuania after the EU's decision to give up and agreed with Belarus gradually until 2019. their own electrification of the entire course. He has quietly and very nesireklamuojant done. There were several reports in the press that is soon to be completed (if not already closed) railway electrification between Vilnius and Minsk. As far as I watched, it really electrification work has already gone beyond the Vilnius to Klaipeda. But in the press about the quiet calm.
Another interesting news here was recently featured in public that KNF'as aims to become a major Belarusian oil export port. But it is also about nothing else but the sum of such vague messages clearly see why KNF'as sticking his money in oil development. Silence together with AB "Lithuanian Railways implements the plan, which was very grievous than Latvians or Estonians, but we really like and Belarus, which also contributes to the implementation of this plan.
As can be seen from KNF'o messages investments made (for which has already been reported) will be completed on the absorption of the end of 2018. Then I think we'll have a second KNF'o wave of business growth, particularly in terms in terms of profitability. Of course, there is still a lot of unknowns are all kinds, but the image is moving toward is quite clear.
I was very intrigued by the recently introduced KNF'o long-term strategy, where in 2020. EBITDA projected 62 million. EUR and its profitability.
Historically, such energy prekiaujasi approximately 7-10 annual EBITDA'ų. Approximately both AB Venspils oil was most recently purchased. This is a long-term perspective of 3-5 years, I believe that KNF'o share price roughly likely bu 1.2-1.6 range. The more so that investors like to place nestovinčios, investing in development, making the distribution and still growing company. Of course, if the world markets will not happen, or any serious crisis. Now on almost everyone's talking. But from experience I can say that the crisis is coming when all live afigienai, all things pofik money pockets and brain pushes, people are forgotten crises, and some even their lives are not in total seen. In contrast, when most of the surrounding's talking about the crisis immediately accomplish, they never absent, because there is a preparation for and nobody do not allow themselves to relax and forget.
But let's be fair and biedni - markets can all happen in both good and bad. But I am of the opinion that the long-term KNF'o shares "strong buy." As for short-term speculation (technical analysis), that do not have a knowledge and desire, because it is not suitable for our illiquid markets (except sometimes in extreme market happened to susvyravimais) and has nothing to do with investment. Speculation is speculation, and I leave it to speculators I prefer a long-term campaign creamy carpet.
By the way, about 2019. planned third large investment project - the modernization of the existing berths and a new (third) embankment construction. You will work together with the Klaipeda port, which engage in dredging the quays KNF'o. It is also understood investment because the monitoring of internet calling tankers is not fun, as you can see the waterfront KNF'o tanker berthed high (250 m. In length and above) is not fully loaded, because it prevents the waterfront in too little depth. Or that KNF'o on embankments (1 and 2 quays at the port) and stands are loaded two tankers, and two more are waiting in the queue along the port wing. Nobody likes a row http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:21.1/centery:55.7/zoom:12
Word KNF'as over 10 years (2012-2022) roughly be invested in the development of about 300 million.(EUR 1 billion. Dollars).
Wait-and-see how there will be - Good luck By the way, I was always the question, why not buy KNF'as near its territory JSC "Freight Terminal" oil products handling business with all of the quay. It turns out there are rumors that the desire of KNF'o sides seem to be, but the latter are not selling myself. Such an acquisition business sense (location and existing infrastructure) would be ideal KNF'ui.